Speculative Pressure Score
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Indicators : Macro
Macro Regime Dashboard
Is the macro wind at your back, in your face, or shifting? Use this page to read liquidity, rates, inflation, growth, and dollar pressure before sizing risk.
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Macro mode
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Data updated
Today’s macro read
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Regime direction
Recent Macro Score Trend
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Direction matters because macro changes slowly. A weak level that is improving can be different from a weak level that is deteriorating.
Recent score trend
Latest readings
Valuation & market reward
Valuation & Market Reward
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CAPE shows valuation risk. Earnings yield, Treasury yield, and real rates show whether investors are being compensated for that risk.
Monthly CAPE history
Latest readings
CAPE changes slowly, so monthly direction matters more than daily noise.
Historical valuation context
Shiller P/E: 1929–Present reference zones
The long view helps separate normal expensive markets from historically stretched valuation regimes.
What the Shiller P/E measures
Shiller P/E, also called CAPE or PE10, compares the S&P 500 price with the average of the prior 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings. It smooths recessions, profit booms, and temporary earnings spikes.
How to read the zones
- Under 15cheap or crisis-level valuation.
- 15–20normal to fair.
- 20–25expensive but not extreme.
- 25–30very expensive.
- 30–40stretched valuation risk.
- 40+extreme valuation zone.
Use this as long-term reward/risk context, not as a one-week or one-month market-timing signal.
Valuation versus trend
How to use expensive markets
CAPE shows long-term valuation pressure. Trend shows whether the market is confirming risk appetite today.
Valuation and trend context will load with the latest snapshot.
Market cycle context
Speculative Cycle Explorer
Educational context
Compare historical speculative cycles with the current AI-led growth cycle. The chart uses indexed price runs from each cycle base, while the score is an educational pressure estimate, not a crash forecast or market-timing signal.
Cycle
Indexed price run from cycle base
Speculative cycle map, 1929–Present
Select one cycle at a time. Add one comparison line when useful. Lower-confidence proxy series are shown as dashed lines.
Interpretation
How to read this cycle
Cycle notes will load with the selected chart.
Calculation logic
Speculative Pressure Scores use a consistent historical framework, though raw inputs vary by asset class. Price velocity is measured directly. Factors like valuation stretch, leverage, and fragility are evaluated using the most relevant metrics for that specific cycle. This score provides educational context regarding historical excess, not a market timing signal.
Macro switchboard
Six conditions that shape risk appetite
How to use this data
What to do with the macro backdrop
Supportive / Improving
Normal risk is acceptable when price action confirms. Favour leaders, clean bases, and sectors with relative strength.
Mixed
Stay selective. Keep position size reasonable, demand better entries, and do not chase weak or extended charts.
Restrictive / Risk-off
Protect capital. Reduce leverage, tighten stops, favour quality and liquidity, and wait for confirmation before adding risk.
Release pulse
Latest inflation, growth, and labour readings
Education
How to read this page
Start with Macro Mode
The top read summarizes the current backdrop into one posture so you know whether macro is helping risk or fighting it.
Check the trend
The Macro Mode Trend shows whether the regime is improving, deteriorating, or staying flat. Direction matters because macro usually changes slowly.
Read valuation separately
CAPE, P/E, earnings yield, Treasury yield, and real rates explain long-term reward versus valuation pressure. This is context, not the main macro score.
Use the switchboard cards
Each card shows the latest value, status, gauge, and practical use. Read the group together rather than leaning on one reading alone.
Watch release pulse
The release cards track inflation, growth, and labour updates so you can see whether the macro story is confirming or weakening after new data.
Translate it into behaviour
Supportive macro allows more normal risk, mixed macro demands selectivity, and restrictive macro means tighter risk control and stronger capital protection.
FAQ
What does Macro Mode measure?
Macro Mode summarizes the broad risk backdrop using conditions such as the yield curve, liquidity, policy pressure, growth versus inflation, rates momentum, and dollar pressure. It is a regime read, not a trade entry signal.
How should I use the Macro Mode Trend?
The trend shows whether recent macro snapshots are improving, deteriorating, or staying stable. A weak backdrop that is improving is different from a weak backdrop that is getting worse.
What is the yield curve card?
The yield curve card uses the 10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield. A positive or steepening curve is generally healthier than a deep inversion, but it must be read with growth, inflation, labour, and credit conditions.
What does Liquidity Pulse mean?
Liquidity Pulse uses M2 year-over-year growth. Expanding liquidity can support risk assets over time, while contraction or slowing liquidity makes expensive markets more fragile.
Why is Policy Pressure important?
Policy Pressure compares Fed Funds with Core PCE inflation. A higher real policy rate means monetary policy is tighter, which can pressure speculative, leveraged, and rate-sensitive assets.
Why did we add Valuation & Rates Climate?
Valuation explains how much long-term cushion the market has. CAPE, S&P 500 P/E, earnings yield versus the 10-year Treasury, and real 10-year rates help show whether equities are cheap, fair, expensive, or priced for perfection.
Is CAPE a market-timing signal?
No. CAPE is a long-term valuation backdrop. An extreme reading can stay extreme while markets keep rising. The warning is not “sell”; the warning is that valuation cushion is thin if earnings, margins, rates, or liquidity disappoint.
Why show monthly and long-term CAPE history?
Monthly CAPE shows the recent direction of valuation pressure. The long-term view gives reference points across major valuation regimes, including 1929, the Nifty Fifty era, the dot-com peak, the post-GFC reset, the COVID-era expansion, and the current cycle.
Does a high Shiller P/E mean a crash is coming?
No. A high Shiller P/E means long-term valuation cushion is thin and future return expectations are usually lower from that starting point. It can stay high for years when earnings, liquidity, and market leadership remain strong.
Why compare earnings yield with the 10-year Treasury?
It shows whether equities offer enough earnings reward versus safer bond yields. When the equity cushion is thin or negative, broad-market valuation has less room for disappointment.
What is Excess CAPE Yield?
Excess CAPE Yield compares the long-term earnings yield implied by CAPE with inflation-adjusted 10-year Treasury yields. It helps show whether expensive stocks are still offering enough reward after real rates are considered.
How should traders use this page?
Use this page to adjust risk posture. Supportive macro allows normal risk when price action confirms. Mixed macro means be selective. Restrictive macro means smaller size, cleaner entries, and tighter risk control.
Related tools
Educational use only. Data sources: FRED and Multpl valuation references. This is not investment advice.