Macro regime score, curve slope, breakevens, financial conditions, and credit spreads — all in one view.
Green = Long duration bias • Blue = Neutral carry & curve RV (relative value) • Orange/Red = Short duration or steepeners
Four slow-moving pillars with quick badges and tiny sparklines. Green = calm, Amber = watch, Red = stress.
Measures the gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. A negative slope (inversion) signals markets expect future rate cuts and rising recession risk, which is typically bullish for long-duration bonds. Watch for deepening inversions and the re-steepening from negative territory as the policy cycle turns.
Measures market-implied inflation expectations derived from TIPS spreads and a 5y5y forward rate. Falling breakevens indicate easing inflation pressures and are generally bond-friendly. A subdued 5y5y (roughly at or below ~2.25%) supports duration longs; persistent rises warn of inflation risk.
Measures a weekly composite of money, credit, and equity conditions. Higher values reflect tighter financial conditions, which tend to precede slower growth and policy easing — usually supportive for Treasuries. Sustained moves above 0 often flag a risk-off regime.
Measures weekly new filings for unemployment benefits. A persistent uptrend signals labor-market softening and rising recession risk — typically bullish for bonds. Track the 4-week average and rising trends above ~250–300k.
Measures the extra yield investors demand for holding long bonds beyond the expected path of short rates. Falling term premium suggests strong demand/safe-haven flows; sharp increases can push long yields higher even as the market prices cuts. Treat spikes as a warning for duration.
Measures the option-adjusted spread of high-yield bonds over Treasuries. Widening spreads signal risk-off conditions and often coincide with rallies in safe duration; tightening spreads indicate risk-on and upward pressure on yields. Levels above ~6–7% often indicate stress; below ~4% suggest complacency.
The Deep Inversion control defines how negative the yield curve (10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread) must be before the chart flags conditions as "dangerous" and colors the curve red.
| 10Y–2Y Spread | Interpretation | Typical Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| > 0.00% | Normal / upward-sloping | Healthy expansion, bonds less attractive short-term |
| 0.00 → −0.25% | Mild inversion | Market starting to expect rate cuts — soft landing still possible |
| −0.25 → −0.50% | Moderate inversion | Late-cycle territory — tightening pressure peaking |
| < −0.50% | Deep inversion | Recession warning zone — historically precedes slowdowns |
| < −0.75% | Extreme inversion | Historically seen before major recessions (1980, 2000, 2022) |
Use the Custom option to enter your own level (e.g., −0.35 or −0.75) and test sensitivity. The line recolors instantly.
2W–1M: Market psychology and policy reactions (CPI, FOMC, liquidity events)
3M–6M: Macro cycle transition (tightening vs easing, financial conditions shifts)
1Y–3Y: Full policy and business-cycle rotation (expansion vs slowdown)
5Y–10Y+: Secular macro trends (inflation regime, debt, demographics)